January 7, 2026

The Risks That Actually Hurt and Kill People Outdoors

My inbox has been full since the Colorado mountain lion fatality. People are scared. People are asking what to do. Some are saying they will never hike alone again. Others are talking about carrying guns, carrying knives, carrying bear spray, carrying everything.

I get it.

A mountain lion attack is fast, violent, and primal. It hits the nervous system in a way that a slip on ice never will. It also happened close to a populated area, which makes it feel like the danger is now living in your backyard.

But if you want to stay safe outside, you need a clear view of risk, not the version your fear serves you in the middle of the night.

Here is the truth.

Mountain lion encounters and attacks do happen, but fatal attacks are rare, and they get massive attention because they are dramatic.

The things that hurt and kill people outdoors way more often are boring. They do not go viral. They do not make headline news unless the body count is high.

So I want to give you a better risk picture, with real numbers, and then I want to give you simple actions that actually reduce your odds of becoming a statistic.

What Happened in Colorado and Why It Feels So Big

This New Year’s Day attack near the Crosier Mountain area in Larimer County is getting national attention because it was a confirmed fatality and it happened in an area where people recreate close to town. Colorado Parks and Wildlife and multiple outlets have described it as the first fatal mountain lion incident in Colorado since 1999.

To put it in perspective, there have been approximately 2 to 4 documented fatal mountain lion attacks in the entire United States since 1999. That is over a quarter century, across all states, all trails, and all people.

Four. Fatal. Attacks. In. 26. Years.

That is part of why this feels so intense. It is rare enough that it becomes a big story instantly.

To be transparent, my research found that based on compiled incident records, NON-FATAL mountain lion attacks average about one per year across the entire United States. 1 per year.

Now compare that to roughly 53,000 deaths every single year in the United States from falls, drowning, hypothermia, and heat related causes.

You can stop reading right now if you get the picture, or you can keep going if you want the bigger breakdown.

The Numbers That Put This in Perspective

A commonly cited North America total is 29 fatal mountain lion cases since 1868, which works out to about 0.18 fatal attacks per year.

That is not “it cannot happen.” It is “it almost never happens.”

National Park Service mortality data from 2014 to 2019 shows an average of 358 deaths per year across national parks. The top causes are motor vehicle crashes, drownings, and falls.

That matches what most experienced search and rescue people see over and over. It is not predators. It is physics, water, weather, and decisions.

Also worth noting, the NPS reported a 2019 mortality rate of 0.11 deaths per 100,000 recreational visits. That is extremely low relative to how many people recreate.

When you look at broader U.S. numbers, the quiet killers dwarf mountain lion risk by massive margins.

Unintentional falls killed 47,026 people in 2023. Falls alone kill people hundreds of thousands of times more often than mountain lions.

Cold exposure and hypothermia caused 1,024 deaths in 2023. That is roughly 5,600 times more common than a fatal mountain lion attack.

A peer reviewed JAMA analysis reported 2,325 heat related deaths in 2023, reflecting recent increases during extreme heat events. That is roughly 12,900 times more common than a fatal mountain lion attack.

Drowning kills more than 4,000 people per year in the United States, with recent years exceeding 4,500 annually. That is roughly 25,000 times more common than a fatal mountain lion attack.

If you only remember one thing, remember this.

Your odds of getting hurt by terrain, water, and weather are not even in the same universe as your odds of being killed by a mountain lion.

Why People Fixate on Predators

Because fear is not a spreadsheet.

A fall feels like your fault, so it is easy to ignore until it happens.

A predator feels like an outside force hunting you. That story pattern hijacks attention.

Social media amplifies what is emotional and visual. A mountain lion headline spreads fast. A slipped and hit head on icy rock headline does not.

The problem is that fear makes people do dumb things.

They overreact to rare risks and underreact to common ones.

That is how people get hurt.

So What Should You Actually Do

There are two layers here.

The first is mountain lion awareness that reduces the odds of an encounter going sideways.

The second is the bigger picture stuff that actually keeps people alive outdoors.

Mountain Lion Awareness That Makes Sense

Take your earbuds out. If you are out there to get away from technology, stop bringing it with you and stuffing it in your ears. Be present and listen. Nature is usually humming with sound, birds calling, squirrels moving, wind through trees, the background noise of life. Pay attention to that. That is your baseline. If everything suddenly goes eerily quiet, that matters. If birds and squirrels start going nuts, that matters too. They are reacting to something. You do not need to be paranoid, but shifts like that should heighten awareness, not get ignored because you cranked the volume.

Lift your head. A shocking number of people hike staring at their feet or their phone. Peripheral vision matters. Predators, terrain hazards, weather changes, and other people are detected early when your head is up and your eyes are scanning, not locked on the trail ten feet ahead.

Trust discomfort without panicking. You do not need a reason you can articulate. If something feels off, weather, terrain, energy, sound, gut instinct, pay attention. Awareness is not fear. Ignoring that signal because you cannot logically explain it is how people talk themselves into trouble.

Pay attention to your dog. What is your dog doing right now? Is it acting normal? Is your small yappy dog suddenly barking more than usual when there is nothing obvious around? Is your big, confident dog glued to your side with its hackles up, suddenly wanting to crawl into your lap? Dogs notice things long before we do. Changes in their behavior matter. Do not dismiss that information just because you cannot immediately see a reason for it.

Walk with a solid walking stick or trekking poles. They help with balance and footing, but they also mean you already have something in your hands if you need it. A sturdy stick or pole can be used to make yourself look bigger, strike, block, or keep distance if something closes in. Do not underestimate the value of having a tool immediately available instead of something buried in a pack or clipped to your belt.

When hiking with others, avoid spreading out so far that you lose visual and verbal contact. Isolation creates opportunity.

If you see a mountain lion, do not run. Do not turn your back. Do not crouch. Do not bend down to pick things up right next to it. Running flips the chase switch.

An air horn can be useful if you use it correctly. It is not something you randomly blast on the trail. If you actually see a mountain lion and it is too close for comfort, a sharp, sudden blast may startle it and disrupt the encounter. That surprise matters. Do not walk around randomly tooting an air horn for no reason. That can reduce its effectiveness or even draw attention. If you carry one, use it deliberately, at close range, and only when it serves the purpose of breaking the moment and shifting the animal’s behavior.

Bear spray works on mountain lions, but only if you understand how it works. It is a close range tool designed to create an overwhelming sensory cloud that disrupts an animal’s approach, and yes, it can be effective on a cat. But wind direction matters. Spray into a headwind and you may blind or incapacitate yourself instead. Know which way the wind is moving before you deploy it, and understand that timing and distance matter. Bear spray is not a magic force field. It is a last line option meant to buy you space by disrupting the moment, not something to rely on blindly or deploy without thought.

Get big and get loud. Arms up. Jacket open. Aggressive posture. Loud voice. Throw rocks or sticks if it approaches. Make it regret being near you.

Protect your throat. A cat’s instinct is not to scratch you or wrestle you. It is to go for your throat and suffocate you. That is how they kill. If a mountain lion closes distance, your neck immediately becomes a primary target. Chin down. Forearms up. Elbows tight. Use whatever you have to guard that space, your arms, trekking poles, a stick, a pack strap, anything. I am not saying wear armor or carry special gear. I am saying understand anatomy and intent. If you are on the ground, this matters even more. Your throat is life or death in that moment, and protecting it buys you time to fight back.

Keep kids close and keep dogs under control. Small humans and loose pets move like prey. Kids run. Dogs run. That movement pattern can invite pursuit.

Pick kids up immediately and hold them close. Do not let them run. Try to keep them calm and still. High pitched panic, flailing, and erratic movement can reinforce prey behavior. The adult should stay upright, loud, and in control.

Pay attention to timing. Dawn and dusk are higher risk periods for predator movement, especially when deer are active and light is low. Winter can push animals into lower elevations and closer to trails, increasing the chance of human encounters, not aggression.

If attacked, fight like your life depends on it. Because it does. Eyes. Face. Head. Throat. Use rocks, sticks, trekking poles, your hands, anything. Do not play dead with a cat.

Firearms and False Confidence

A lot of people are flexing right now and saying, “I carry a gun.”

Big f’ing woppedy doo.

Have you trained with it for this? I’m guessing not.

If you are carrying a firearm in a chest rig, backpack, waistband, or any other holster or rig and you cannot draw and get an effective shot on target in about 0.25 seconds, you might as well be carrying a laser pointer and a big ball of yarn.

Just because you took a concealed carry class does not mean you are suddenly John Wick. Even regular range time does not prepare you for a 160 lb animal of bone, teeth, and claws that can hit 50 mph and explode out of concealment with a single purpose on its mind. A mountain lion does not square up. It does not announce itself. It does not give you time to think through draw strokes and sight pictures.

Don’t get me wrong, I am a 2A advocate but people need to recognize their limitations. Do not let it give you false confidence. False confidence gets people killed.

Do not turn your hike into paranoia. Awareness is good. Fear is not. And remember…4 fatalities in 26 years.

The Real Safety Upgrades That Prevent Most Tragedies

Most outdoor fatalities come down to falls and hard impacts. Slow down when the ground is slick. Use trekking poles if they help. Step like you mean it. If the trail is iced over and you are sliding, that is a message.

People treat weather like background scenery. It is not. Wind, wetness, and temperature swings can cook you or freeze you faster than you think. Cold exposure kills people every year. Heat kills people every year. Check the forecast, then look at the sky anyway. If clouds are building and the wind shifts, do not negotiate with it.

Drowning numbers are not small. Creek crossings, slick rocks, cold water shock, spring runoff. People misread water constantly.

Getting lost is usually not a lost problem. It is a decision problem. People keep going because ego hates turning back. Normalize turning around. That is not failure. That is competence.

Fatigue is when ankles roll, footing gets sloppy, and judgment gets weird. A lot of accidents happen at the end of the day when people are rushing to just finish.

Plenty of people die outdoors from medical events. A large share happen during physical activity like hiking and swimming. Know your limits. Know the limits of the people you bring with you. Do not use the trail as a place to discover you have been ignoring your health.

Yes, this mountain lion story is intense. It is getting huge attention because it is rare, fast, and violent, and it happened close to where people live. But animal attacks are low on the list of what hurts and kills people outdoors. Even bison, massive unpredictable animals that people routinely underestimate, injure roughly one person per year on average in places like Yellowstone, yet they do not dominate national fear cycles.

Falls, water incidents, heat, and cold exposure take far more lives every year, and they do it quietly without going viral.

Stay aware of wildlife, but focus your energy on the risks you are most likely to face: terrain, weather, water, navigation, pacing, and knowing when to turn around.

I could keep going. Entire books have been written on this subject, and this post is already long. I’m honestly impressed if you made it to the end. This isn’t meant to cover everything, it’s meant to cover what matters most. So if you have something to add, feel free to put it in the comments. Just don’t say I missed it. I didn’t. I’m keeping this focused.

The Bottom Line

You do not need to stop hiking.
You do not need to panic.
You need a clear picture of risk and a few skills that stack the odds in your favor.

Mountain lion attacks are rare.
Falls, water, heat, and cold are the everyday threats that keep taking people.

If your goal is to come home, train your mind to respect the boring dangers, not just the dramatic ones.

About the Author

Jason Marsteiner is the founder and lead instructor at The Survival University, where he’s turned his obsession with staying alive into a mission to teach real-world survival skills. Forget fancy gear, Jason’s all about the know-how that gets you through the wild or a city crisis. A published author of Wilderness Survival Guide: Practical Skills for the Outdoor Adventurer, he’s distilled years of hard-earned wisdom into lessons anyone can use.

Raised in Colorado’s rugged mountains, Jason’s survival chops were forged in the wild—from Missouri forests to Arizona deserts to Costa Rican jungles. He’s navigated it all with next to nothing, earning creds like Wilderness First Responder (WFR) and SAR tracking along the way. He’s trained thousands to keep cool when 911’s out of reach, proving survival’s not just for grizzled adventurers, it’s for hikers, parents, and city slickers alike.

Jason’s mantra? Everyone should make it home safe. When he’s not running courses, he’s designing knives, mentoring newbies, or chilling in the city like the rest of us, always sharpening the skills that turn panic into power.